What Canada’s Respiratory Virus Surveillance Says for 2025: Risks, Trends & What You Should Know

Explore Canada’s latest respiratory virus surveillance (2025): RSV, influenza, regional trends, risk groups, and prevention steps every Canadian should know.

Introduction

Respiratory viruses—think influenza, RSV, seasonal coronaviruses—are quietly shaping public health risks as we move deeper into 2025. In Canada, surveillance data is revealing shifts in patterns, particularly for vulnerable groups like older adults.

In this article, we’ll walk you through:

• How respiratory virus surveillance works in Canada
• What the latest 2025 data shows for RSV, flu, COVID-19, and more
• Regional differences (e.g. BC, Ontario)
• Who is most at risk, and what’s new about vaccines
• What this suggests for the rest of the 2025–26 season
• What clinics, public health agencies, and individuals can do

By the end, you’ll have not just the numbers, but the context—and a clearer sense of how to act.

Understanding Respiratory Virus Surveillance in Canada

What is “surveillance”?

Surveillance in this context means systematically collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data about circulating respiratory viruses. That includes:

• Laboratory testing (nasal swabs, PCR, antigen tests)
• Reporting networks (provincial labs, hospitals, public health labs)
• Data aggregation at the national level
• Trend analysis (weekly case counts, test positivity, hospital admissions)

The Public Health Agency of Canada publishes a Respiratory Virus Surveillance dashboard, showing weekly virus activity (influenza, RSV, SARS-CoV-2, etc.) across provinces. You can explore their interactive data pages here.
Also, many provinces maintain dashboards of their own—for example, Ontario’s Respiratory Virus Tool shows testing trends, hospital bed occupancy, and outcomes.

Surveillance helps public health officials detect surges early, allocate resources, and tailor guidance for health systems and communities.

Limitations & caveats you should know

Surveillance is powerful—but it has blind spots. A few important ones:

• Underreporting / under-ascertainment: Not everyone with a virus gets tested, especially if symptoms are mild.
• Geographic and population gaps: Some remote areas or populations may be less represented.
• Delays in reporting: Lab results and administrative processing take time.
• Changing testing behavior: Over time, people test more or less often, and that skews comparisons across seasons.
• Diagnostic overlap & co-infections: People can carry multiple viruses, which complicates attribution of symptoms.

Even recent research on hospital burdens in Canada notes these challenges. While surveillance gives a timely snapshot, it doesn’t capture the full burden of disease.

In short: treat the numbers as directional and comparative, not perfect counts.

Current Trends for 2025 (Influenza, RSV, SARS-CoV-2, Others)

National overview (2025)

As of October 2024, the Canadian national surveillance snapshot shows that influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 are being tracked weekly, with metrics like test positivity and detections broken out by virus type. You can view that summary here.

Though “2025” is still unfolding, early signs show low to moderate activity in many regions, with variation by virus and province.

RSV in 2025

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) has a strong seasonal component, typically rising in late fall through winter. For 2025:

• RSV detections are currently low in many provinces.
• Because RSV surveillance is part of the national respiratory virus dashboard, you’ll see weekly case counts stratified by age groups, which helps detect shifts among older adults vs children.
• The recent approval of RSV vaccines in Canada is particularly relevant (see next section).

Influenza trends

Flu activity is often cyclical. In recent seasons, flu often peaked between December and February, though timing and intensity vary by province.

For 2025, influenza test positivity is also modest in many areas, but we must watch for upticks as winter approaches.

SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 patterns

COVID-19 is integrated into Canadian respiratory virus surveillance. While its severity is lower in many vaccinated populations, the virus still contributes to respiratory burden, especially when combined with other viruses.

In some provinces, sequencing and viral evolution data (such as from the Canadian VirusSeq Portal) help public health track variant trends in near real time.

Other respiratory viruses

Beyond RSV, flu, and COVID-19, several viruses circulate each season, including:

• Human metapneumovirus (hMPV)
• Parainfluenza viruses
• Seasonal human coronaviruses (other than SARS-CoV-2)

These are less often covered in headlines but can contribute to hospital admissions and complicate clinical diagnosis.

Regional Differences Across Provinces

Tracking national averages can obscure important regional variation. Let’s dig into how different provinces are seeing respiratory virus activity—and what that means.

British Columbia: low RSV & flu, moderate COVID-19

In British Columbia, the latest Respiratory Virus Activity report (ended week 35 of 2025) shows low influenza and RSV levels, while COVID-19 activity is moderate. Wastewater surveillance signals are stable and not pointing to a surge yet.
The report notes that influenza test positivity and viral loads are steady and low across BC.
(See BC’s full report.)

That suggests BC may have a milder respiratory virus season so far, but with COVID-19 still circulating, vigilance is needed.

Ontario: detailed surveillance via provincial tool

Ontario publishes a comprehensive Respiratory Virus Tool with data on lab testing, hospital bed occupancy, ICU use, and outbreaks. As of September 2025, the surveillance period for 2025–26 began August 24.
This reset means the tool will accumulate data for the current season, letting public health compare peaks and intensity over time.

Because Ontario has more dense population centers and variable climates, its trends can serve as early warning for other provinces.

Quebec, Alberta, and others

Quebec and Alberta also maintain public dashboards or published surveillance bulletins. In Alberta, the respiratory virus dashboard shows province-level positivity rates, hospital admissions, and ICU trends. For Quebec, weekly reports highlight virus detections by region, though sometimes with reporting lags.

When comparing provinces, differences often emerge from:

• Climate (e.g. earlier cold snaps in more northerly provinces)
• Population density / urban centers
• Testing access and habits
• Health system capacity and reporting practices

Table: Sample snapshot of provincial virus activity (for illustration)

Note: “TBD” = backlog of seasonal data reset; provincial dashboards may update weekly.

Who Is at Risk? Focus on Older Adults & Vulnerable Groups

Even if overall virus activity is modest now, particular groups face higher risk. Among those, older adults (50+, especially 60+), people with comorbid conditions, and the immunocompromised deserve our attention.

Why older adults should watch RSV and influenza

• RSV, though often thought of as a pediatric virus, is increasingly recognized as a serious threat for older adults.
• In Canada, new vaccines for RSV have recently received approval, especially for those aged 50 to 59, and for 60+ groups.
• Influenza remains a perennial threat: older adults tend to suffer more severe outcomes, higher hospitalization, and longer recovery.

Because surveillance data typically stratifies by age groups, you can watch shifts in detections among older brackets to see whether risk is growing.

Hospital burden trends in Canada

A recent Canadian study on hospital burden found that respiratory viruses like RSV and influenza contribute significantly to hospital admissions, especially during peak season. However, surveillance systems alone cannot capture full burden due to underreporting, incomplete coverage, and clinical overlap of symptoms.

That means official numbers often understate the impact—so health systems must plan capacity with buffer.

Key factors that raise risk

• Underlying chronic diseases (e.g. COPD, heart disease, diabetes)
• Weakened immune systems (due to age, medications, or prior illness)
• Living or care settings (long-term care homes, communal housing)
• Lower vaccine uptake — especially if RSV or flu vaccines are new or less publicized

For older adults, combining preventive measures with timely detection and health monitoring is especially critical.

Interpretation & Forecast: What the Data Suggests for 2025–26 Season

When we line up the surveillance trends in Canada, we can start to see possible scenarios for how the rest of the 2025 respiratory virus season might play out.

Key signals to watch

1. Upward movement in test positivity or detections
   If influenza or RSV positivity starts climbing consistently in weekly reports, that suggests a shift from low baseline into more active spread.
2. Hospitalization and ICU trends
   Even modest rises in milder detections might foreshadow steeper increases in hospital burden, especially in older adults.
3. Co-circulation and overlap
   A big risk is when RSV, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 waves overlap. That can stretch health systems. Past Canadian studies show epidemics typically run from late fall to spring and stress hospitals.
4. Regional divergence
   Some provinces may see earlier or sharper increases depending on climate, community immunity, and public health measures.
5. Vaccination and immunity effects
   The newly approved RSV vaccines and flu vaccination uptake will play a moderating role in how severe or broad viral waves become.

Possible scenarios for 2025–26

Given that many regions currently show low to moderate activity, the moderate scenario is the most plausible. But the shift could happen quickly if climate or indoor crowding changes.

What Clinics, Public Health, and Individuals Can Do

To turn data into protection, here’s how different actors can prepare:

Public health & clinics: readiness and response

• Capacity planning: Hospitals and clinics should monitor bed occupancy and stockpile essential supplies (oxygen, antivirals, testing kits).
• Surveillance enhancements: Expand lab testing, syndromic surveillance, wastewater tracking, and genomic surveillance.
• Communication and alerts: Issue advisories when upticks begin; encourage early treatment in high-risk groups.
• Vaccination campaigns: Promote flu and RSV vaccination in eligible groups and schedule proactively (just before virus season).
• Coordination across jurisdictions: Provinces should share early warning metrics and coordinate resources if one is hitting a surge.

For individuals, especially older adults or vulnerable

• Get vaccinated:
  • Flu vaccines remain a core preventive tool.
  • RSV vaccines are now recommended for older age groups. According to Canadian guidelines, adults 75+ should be prioritized, and immunization may be considered for those 50–74 in consultation with a provider.
  • Canada approved Moderna’s mRNA RSV vaccine for those 60+ in late 2024, expanding tools available.

  More detail on RSV vaccine usage is available in Canada’s immunization guidance.

• Practice respiratory hygiene: Masks in crowded indoor settings, good ventilation, hand hygiene.
• Seek care early: If symptoms worsen—shortness of breath, chest pain, persistent fever—consult a healthcare provider rather than waiting.
• Manage comorbidities: Keep chronic conditions (diabetes, heart disease, lung disease) well controlled.
• Stay informed: Watch provincial dashboards (e.g. Ontario’s Respiratory Virus Tool) and follow public health updates.

Key Takeaways & Recommendations

By now you’ve seen how Canada’s surveillance of respiratory viruses—RSV, influenza, COVID-19, and others—is evolving in 2025. Here are the crucial insights and steps to keep in mind:

• Surveillance data currently points to low to moderate respiratory virus activity across many provinces. But modest signals can shift rapidly.
• Regional variation matters: some provinces may see earlier upticks; climate, population density, and health system differences affect outcomes.
• Older adults, especially those 60+, plus people with chronic illnesses, remain at elevated risk from RSV and flu.
• The recent approval of RSV vaccines in Canada (for certain older age groups) changes the landscape of prevention.
• Health systems, clinics, and individuals all have roles to play to minimize illness and hospital burden.

If you’re in a higher-risk group, talk to your healthcare provider about vaccination and early treatment options. Stay plugged into your provincial respiratory virus dashboard, and take preventive steps now rather than reacting later.

Conclusion

Canada’s respiratory virus surveillance for 2025 is giving us a clearer, though cautious, picture: we’re in a quiet stretch now, but changes can come fast. The introduction of RSV vaccination for older adults is a welcomed shift, and the value of early detection, preventive habits, and vaccination can’t be overstated.

Be proactive: consult your health provider about vaccines, follow local public health updates, and stay alert to symptom changes.

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